Competitive Hardwood Timber Bids, Fantasy Football, and Insights for Your Timber-Sale Toolbox(or your timber-buying toolbox)

摘要

Ever wonder what the lowest bidder was thinking when they bid on your timber sale - or, what the high-bidder was thinking? When a mill is only nine miles from a timber sale, ever wonder why a mill 120 miles away would even bother to bid on the sale -let alone, emerge as the high bidder? Or, if you're a timber buyer, ever try to guess what the competition might be thinking before you place a bid on your next timber sale opportunity?This article explores trends, observations and insights from 170 separate timber bids, placed on 26 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry (DCNR) hardwood sawtimber stumpage sales over a four-month span where sawtimber volume exceeded pulpwood volume. It looks at the role played by haul-distance, timber sale size, and other factors, to detect whether certain sawtimber sale attributes are responsible for producing likely levels of bidder participation, predictable levels of "money left on the table" by the high bidder, or other outcomes. This was a fun article to write - and even more enjoyable to analyze and research.