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Network analysis and systemic FX settlement risk

机译:网络分析与系统外汇结算风险

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摘要

A proposal for applying network analysis to a foreign exchange (FX) settlement system is considered. In particular, network centrality metrics are used to analyse payments of financial institutions which settle through CLS Bank (CLS). Network centrality metrics provide a way to study settlement members' connectivity, obtain a sense of their payments evolution with time, and measure their network topology variability. The analysis shows that although the continuous link settlement (CLS) network structure can be approximated with a power law degree distribution for many trade days, this is not always the case. A network community detection algorithm is applied to the FX settlement network to explore relationships between communities and to detect classification patterns in the FX trading net payments. A metric called SinkRank is used to build a ranking of the most systemic settlement risk important financial institutions trading on the FX system, and to understand how the metric depends on network's connectivity. Since network metrics do not fully explain the dynamics of the settlement process, the CLS' settlement system is simulated to measure the contagion of unsettled trades and its spread among network members. The effect of settlement failure and contagion on the settlement members is also explored.
机译:考虑了将网络分析应用于外汇(FX)结算系统的提案。特别地,网络中心性指标用于分析通过CLS银行(CLS)的金融机构的支付。网络中心度量指标提供了一种学习结算成员的连通性的方法,随着时间的推移,获得他们的付款方式,并测量他们的网络拓扑变异性。分析表明,尽管连续链接沉降(CLS)网络结构可以近似许多交易日的电力法律程度分布,但情况并非总是如此。网络社区检测算法应用于外汇结算网络,探讨社区之间的关系,并检测FX交易净支付中的分类模式。称为SinkRank的度量标准用于建立在FX系统上交易的最重要金融机构的最重要的金融机构的排名,并了解度量如何取决于网络的连接。由于网络指标没有完全解释结算过程的动态,因此模拟了CLS的结算系统,以衡量未定位的交易的传染及其在网络成员之间的传播。还探讨了结算失败和蔓延对结算会员的影响。

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