Can seasonal climate forecasting assist in catchment water management decision-making? A case study of the Border Rivers catchment in Australia.

摘要

Although the ability to forecast climatic variability has progressed significantly in recent years, there appears little use of seasonal climate forecast information in catchment water management decision-making. Forecast accuracy, or the perceived lack of forecast accuracy, is cited as a key impediment to the uptake of forecast information in decision-making despite the efforts of researchers to statistically validate forecast systems. One potential reason why accuracy remains an impediment is that decision-makers are not only concerned with statistical validity from a climatological perspective, but also with how accurately a forecast predicts impacts on variables of interest from their perspective. This paper examines this issue using a case study approach from eastern Australia to show that a forecast, which is acceptable from a climatological perspective, does not necessarily transfer into a useable forecast for decision-makers. The results show that expected outcomes differ considerably from outcomes generated using a perfect forecast. These unintended outcomes can decrease the potential for a forecast to be useful to decision-makers. It is concluded that forecast research needs to address forecast accuracy from a user perspective to facilitate the adoption of forecast information in decision-making.