Certainty Factor Triunity in Medical Diagnostics Tasks

摘要

This paper suggests approaches to investigating and solving the problem of three factors that characterize the measure of expert confidence in the occurrence of symptoms in diseases, the timing of the manifestation of symptoms, and the frequency of symptoms in progressive hereditary diseases in five age groups that differ in clinical manifestations (a polyvariant character space). Linguistic scales of fuzzy characteristics (interval age and the occurrence of signs) and certainty factors should contribute to a more subtle and accurate evaluation of diagnostically significant traits and increase the effectiveness of diagnosis at different ages. The measure of confidence is determined with respect to each characteristic used for a given nosological form. In the process of assessing risk factors, specific features of the thinking of experts are considered, that is, intuition, confidence in their knowledge, and reflexivity (regarding emerging hypotheses). Various stages and variants of group expertise with the participation of a cognitive scientist are considered.