Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic

摘要

The relationship between seasonal agricultural drought and detrended yields (within a period from 1961 to 2000) of selected crops was assessed in the conditions of the Czech Republic, which are to some extent representative of a wider area of Central Europe. Impact of water stress was analyzed using time series of yields for 8 crops (spring barley, winter wheat, grain maize, potato, winter rape, oats, winter rye and hay from permanent meadows) for 77 districts in the Czech Republic (average district area is 1025kmpo). Relative version of Palmer's Z-index (rZ-index or rZ-i) was used as a tool for quantification of agricultural drought. The monthly values of the rZ-index for each individual district were calculated as the spatial average (only for the grids of arable land). The study showed that severe droughts (e.g., in 1981 and 2000) are linked with significant reduction in yields of the main cereals and majority of other crops through the most drought prone regions. We found a statistically significant correlation (p <=0.05) between the sum of the rZ-index for the main growing period of each crop and the yield departures of spring barley within 81% (winter wheat in 57%, maize in 48%, potato in 89%, oats in 79%, winter rye in 52%, rape in 39%, hay in 79%) of the analyzed districts. This study also defined the crop-specific thresholds under which a soil moisture deficit (expressed in terms of rZ-index) leads to severe impact at the district level. This can be expressed as the sum of the monthly rZ-index during the period of high crop sensitivity to drought; for spring barley it is -5, winter wheat -5, maize -9, rape -12, winter rye -10, oat -4, potato -6 and for hay -3. The length of the sensitive period is also crop-specific and includes the months that are important for the yield formation. The results show that yields of spring barley (and spring crops in general) are significantly more affected by seasonal water stress than yields of winter crops and hay from permanent meadows. The study proved that a severe drought spell during the sensitive period of vegetative season does have a quantifiable negative effect, even within more humid regions. These results demonstrate that, at least in some areas of the CR (and probably most of Central Europe), drought is one of the key causes of interannual yield variability.