Household Demand Analysis of Organic and Conventional Fluid Milk in the United States Based on the 2004 Nielsen Homescan Panel.

摘要

Using the 2004 AC Nielsen panel consisting of over 38,000 households, the authors ascertain the influence of selected demographic variables associated with the purchase of organic fluid milk through the estimation of a probit model. From the use of the Heckman two-step procedure, they also calculate own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities by estimating demand relationships for both organic and conventional milk. They find that demographic factors play a crucial role in the household choice of purchasing organic milk. Furthermore, households are more sensitive to own-price changes in the case of organic milk versus conventional milk. Evidence from estimated cross-price elasticities indicates that organic and conventional milk are substitutes. However, quantities purchased of organic milk are more sensitive to changes in prices of conventional milk than vice versa. Consequently, an asymmetric pattern exists with regard to the substitution patterns of the respective milk types. Moreover, evidence indicates that organic milk is responsive to income changes, but conventional milk is not responsive to income changes. Finally, a 1% increase in the price of organic milk reduces total milk sales by 0.20%, but a 1% increase in the price of conventional milk raises total milk sales by 0.31%.