Effectiveness assessment of ship navigation safety countermeasures using fuzzy cognitive maps

摘要

The fuzzy cognitive map method is adopted to construct the systematic mapping relationship between ship navigational risk factors and safety level for assessing the effectiveness of ship navigation safety countermeasures. The proposed approach integrates fuzzy inference system and evidential reasoning to convert initial input values of variables and obtain the strength of interconnections, respectively. Non-linear Hebbian learning algorithm is employed to refine the model. The constructed model is then applied with an illustrative case study associated with the middle stream region of the Yangtze river, where the current safety situation and several scenarios for improving navigational safety in the future are evaluated. The logicality and robustness constructed model and the assessing results are validated by applying sensitivity analysis. Through this research, it is found that the proposed method has the characteristics of high efficiency, lightweight and stability, which simulates the safety dynamics of the ship navigational system intuitively like the mode of natural thinking. This work provides an alternative for the shipping safety decision maker to understand the navigation safety status and control the evolving trend of it for a foreseeable period.