Research on a new aviation safety index and its solution under uncertainty conditions

摘要

Aviation safety has been an eternal theme since aircraft is invented, and safety risk assessment is taken as the important method to evaluate the aircraft safety, but it is usually difficult to compute and compare because the aviation risk is often composite, discontinuous and difficult to quantitative. To overcome these drawbacks, a new aircraft safety index under uncertainty conditions is proposed after the definition of aircraft safety was suggested based on the safety concept. After that, the safety performance function under given accident severity was provided through analyzing and describing uncertain factors of the aviation action. Combing with the application of Bow-tie model in the aviation accident fields, the flowchart and solution are suggested to compute the proposed aircraft safety index. Finally, taking the tire burst accident as an example, the feasibility of the proposed index and property of the solution are testified.