Prediction of aircraft safety incidents using Bayesian inference and hierarchical structures

摘要

Today, aviation is immersed in a shift from old-fashioned reactive and compliance-based safety approaches towards proactive and performance-based methods and tools. Stakeholders have to monitor, gather and analyse safety-related data and information in order to anticipate and predict actual and emerging safety risks. In this context safety analytics and statistics need to evolve to forecast future safety performances and risks.