The crude oil market feels uncertain. A seasonal crude demand dip from relatively steep refinery maintenance is set against a background of jittery equity and foreign exchange markets and non-traditional US government policies. This bluster overshadows robust oil fundamentals (OMI Feb.15'18). Key signals: ? OECD inventories are rising modestly at the start of 2018, well below normal seasonal trends, and Opec is now very close to meeting its target of breaching the OECD five-year inventory average. ? Speculators are pushing the market around in technically driven trading. Risk capital potentially abandoning its massive bets is the major downside risk to oil prices.
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