World Oilseed Production Is Now Seen Declining by 10 Mn T in 2019/20 The prospective sharp decline in US soybean output can only be partly offset by higher crops in some other countries

摘要

Our forecast of world soybean production has been reduced to only 350.1 Mn T for 2019/20,6.1 Mn T less than a month earlier and 11.5 Mn T below a year earlier.The biggest change has occurred in the USA.Our crop estimate of 107.0 Mn T compares with last year's 123.7 Mn T and the most recent five-year average of 114.9 Mn T.But there are still many uncertainties,primarily the area actually planted to soybeans in the USA this year.Also,weather during August will be of critical importance.With crop development in arrears(due to late plantings)there is concern about damage from frost before maturity is reached.We have raised our soybean crop estimate for Brazil to 122.0 Mn T for early 2020 compared with 121.0 Mn T previously and 116.5 Mn T a year earlier.A recovery is also anticipated in Paraguay and Uruguay while a setback is anticipated in Argentina,where corn and wheat plantings will be sharply increasing due to improved competitiveness.