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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

机译：概率Tsunami危险分析：多种来源和全球应用

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Abstract >Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run‐up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“Rog20150-Abs-Abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”> Abstract </ title> >应用概率方法不频繁但毁灭性事件是内在的挑战。对于海啸分析，因此，几个地球物理评估应原则上评估，因为不同的原因产生了随着不同的平均复发率的不同意义。概率的海啸危险分析（PTHAs）在全球，区域和地方等级的不同地区进行，目的是了解海啸危害，以通知海啸风险减少活动。 Pthas通过估计在给定位置（目标位点）的一段时间内（曝光时间）在一定时间内（曝光时间）超过特定水平的Tsunami强度度量（例如，升起或最大淹没高度）的概率来增强潜在的海啸威胁的知识;这些估计可以概括在危险地图或危险曲线中。本次讨论提出了PTHA的广泛概述，包括（i）海啸生成的来源和机制，强调海啸来源的各种和复杂性及其发电机制，（ii）在模拟海啸波浪的传播和影响方面的发展，（ III）海啸危害估计的统计程序，包括相关的认知和炼膜不确定性。讨论了在过去十年中PTHA方法的快速发展和全球分布式应用的快速发展，包括考虑多种来源的重要性，他们的相对强度，发生概率和不确定性的重要性，阐述了潜在海啸危害集成和一致的概率框架。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-26997/'>《Reviews of Geophysics》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共41页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Grezio Anita&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Grezio Anita;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Babeyko Andrey&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Babeyko Andrey;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Baptista Maria Ana&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Baptista Maria Ana;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Behrens J?rn&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Behrens J?rn;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Costa Antonio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Costa Antonio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Davies Gareth&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Davies Gareth;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Geist Eric L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Geist Eric L.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Glimsdal Sylfest&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Glimsdal Sylfest;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=González Frank I.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">González Frank I.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Griffin Jonathan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Griffin Jonathan;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Harbitz Carl B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Harbitz Carl B.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=LeVeque Randall J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">LeVeque Randall J.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lorito Stefano&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lorito Stefano;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=L?vholt Finn&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">L?vholt Finn;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Omira Rachid&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Omira Rachid;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mueller Christof&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mueller Christof;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Paris Rapha?l&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Paris Rapha?l;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Parsons Tom&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Parsons Tom;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Polet Jascha&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Polet Jascha;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Power William&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Power William;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Selva Jacopo&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Selva Jacopo;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=S?rensen Mathilde B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">S?rensen Mathilde B.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Thio Hong Kie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Thio Hong Kie;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaBologna Italy;</p> <p>Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ)Germany;</p> <p>Instituto Português do Mar e da AtmosferaUniversidade de LisboaPortugal;</p> <p>Department of MathematicsUniversit?t HamburgHamburg Germany;</p> <p>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaBologna Italy;</p> <p>Geoscience AustraliaCanberra ACT Australia;</p> <p>U.S. Geological SurveyReston VA USA;</p> <p>Norwegian Geotechnical InstituteOslo Norway;</p> <p>Department of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of WashingtonSeattle WA USA;</p> <p>Geoscience AustraliaCanberra ACT Australia;</p> <p>U.S. Geological SurveyReston VA USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of WashingtonSeattle WA USA;</p> <p>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaRoma Italy;</p> <p>Norwegian Geotechnical InstituteOslo Norway;</p> <p>Instituto Português do Mar e da AtmosferaUniversidade de LisboaPortugal;</p> <p>Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS)Lower Hutt New Zealand;</p> <p>Laboratoire Magmas et VolcansUniversité Clermont AuvergneClermont‐Ferrand France;</p> <p>U.S. Geological SurveyReston VA USA;</p> <p>Department of Geological SciencesCalifornia State Polytechnic UniversityPomona CA USA;</p> <p>Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS)Lower Hutt New Zealand;</p> <p>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaBologna Italy;</p> <p>Department of Earth ScienceUniversity of BergenBergen Norway;</p> <p>AECOMLos Angeles CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment&option=203" rel="nofollow">probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tsunami modeling&option=203" rel="nofollow">tsunami modeling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tsunami sources&option=203" rel="nofollow">tsunami sources;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainty analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainty analysis;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=hazard mapping&option=203" rel="nofollow">hazard mapping;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：概率性海啸危险评估;海啸建模;海啸来源;不确定性分析;危险映射; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704024065212.html">Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a 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