A regional analysis of excess capacity in China’s power systems

摘要

Highlights?Analyzes current and future reserve margins in China’s regional grids under three scenarios of electricity demand growth.?China has more than enough power plants today, and does not need any new base-load coal power plants for reliability purposes by 2020, and potentially by 2025.?There are large discrepancies in reserve margins among grid regions, which suggest the importance of coordination among grid regions in providing for generation adequacy across China.?China needs a more integrated and robust planning process to meet its national environmental and reliability goals at the least social cost.AbstractChina’s economy has entered a “new normal,” characterized by slower economic growth and widespread overcapacity in its industrial sectors. Nevertheless, construction of power plants, especially coal-fired plants, continues at a rapid pace. Our analysis examines the extent of overcapa