From disappearing climates to climate hubs, the five classes of climate risk for wildlife refuges

摘要

Context Climate change adaptive management strategies for isolated habitats such as wetlands are urgently needed. Conservation areas managed for wildlife refuges can be considered a network, permitting the tracking of current climate conditions within the network under projected future climates. Objectives We ask how many classes of temporal climate dynamics exist within a set of 48 refuges that comprise a network of conservation areas. Methods We identified the current-climate conditions of 48 US National Wildlife Refuges using their annual average of minimum temperature and annual precipitation. We then mapped the movement of analogous climates for each refuge from current to future-time periods under four climate projections. We identified distinct types of analog climate dynamics among the network of wildlife refuges that can inform climate-adaptive natural resource planning. Results We identified five analogous climate categories: (1) disappearing climates; (2) single-analogous climates; (3) multiple-analogous climates; (4) enduring climates; and (5) climate hubs, with some refuges occupying up to three classes. Using four climate projections, we found 10-25 refuges are climatically disappeared; 8-16 whose climate conditions appear in only one other unit; three whose current climate appears in many other refuges; three that are climatically stable; and four that are climate hubs. Conclusions The relative geographic isolation of refuges makes them particularly appropriate for use as nodes in a network-based climate assessment. The climate classification of the nodes can help inform selection from among multiple refuge management strategies based on their relative analogous climate dynamics. For example, new refuges could be identified to account for species inhabiting climatically disappearing refuges.