Framing the picture of energy consumption in China

摘要

China plays a critical role in global carbon reduction in the context of mitigating climate change as the essence of climate change and the associated environmental issues is energy consumption, especially the combustion of fossil fuels. This paper provides a clear picture of China's energy consumption in the past, present and future to facilitate the understanding of what has happened, the main cause and what is likely coming. First, an extended energy flow chart is presented based on the adjusted energy balance table for China, and the detailed energy chains of final services, subsectors and the corresponding technologies are linked to the chart. This work enriches the information about sources of energy demand and contributes to the identification of key areas that should be given priority for energy transitions and technological innovations. Second, three development modes describing the relationship between energy consumption and GDP per capita are proposed based on the experiences of developed countries, and it is noted that China's trajectory is more likely to follow the medium or low energy consumption modes. Finally, the future energy demand of China is projected in a more comprehensive and precise manner by summarizing and comparing the results of outlook reports published by well-known international organizations. The overall trend is that China's energy consumption will continue to grow, while the growth rate will gradually slow.