Scenario analysis of flood control structures using a multi-criteria decision-making technique in Northeast Iran

摘要

Predicting the impacts of flood control measures to determine the best spatial distribution and specifications of check dams assists managers and engineers in planning flood control projects. The focus of this paper is on scenario analysis of check dam construction using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique in the Jafar-Abad Watershed, Golestan Province, Iran. Based on spatial distribution, number and elevation of check dams, eight structural management scenarios were developed. For each scenario, flood hydrographs for different return periods were simulated using the HEC-HMS model. To predict the impacts of implementing the management scenarios, some hydrologic and hydroeconomic indices were quantified for each management scenario. To weight the indices, expert knowledge was elicited using the Delphi process. A MCDM approach was employed to choose the best management scenarios. The analysis shows that Scenario 7 (increasing the number of check dams from 58 to 69) is the best management scenario from the hydrologic perspective. In addition, best management scenarios from hydroeconomic perspective are Scenario 1 (current condition), and Scenario 5 (with only 15 check dams on an upstream sub-watershed), respectively. The approach implemented in this research is a useful way to allocate flood control measures efficiently and effectively.