Coastal flood: a composite method for past events characterisation providing insights in past, present and future hazards-joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches

摘要

The characterisation of past coastal flood events is crucial for risk prevention. However, it is limited by the partial nature of historical information on flood events and the lack or limited quality of past hydro-meteorological data. In addition, coastal flood processes are complex, driven by many hydro-meteorological processes, making mechanisms and probability analysis challenging. Here, we tackle these issues by joining historical, statistical and modelling approaches. We focus on a macrotidal site (Gavres, France) subject to overtopping and investigate the 1900-2010 period. We build a continuous hydro-meteorological database and a damage event database using archives, newspapers, maps and aerial photographs. Using together these historical information, hindcasts and hydrodynamic models, we identify nine flood events, among which five are significant flood events (four with high confidence: 1924, 1978, 2001, 2008; one with a lower confidence: 1904). These flood events are driven by the combination of sea-level rise, tide, atmospheric surge, offshore wave conditions and local wind. We further analyse the critical conditions leading to flood, including the effect of coastal defences, showing, for instance, that the present coastal defences would not have allowed to face the hydro-meteorological conditions of 09/02/1924, whose bi-variate return periods of exceedance T-R (still water level relative to the mean sea level and significant wave height) are larger than 1000 year. In the coming decades, T-R is expected to significantly decrease with sea-level rise, reaching values smaller than 1 year, for eight of the nine historical events, for a sea-level rise of 0.63 m, which is equal to the median sea-level rise projected by the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC in this region for RCP8.5 in 2100.