Uncertainty Assessment of the ERA-20C Reanalysis Based on the Monthly In Situ Precipitation Analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre

摘要

The uncertainty of the precipitation parameter in the ECMWF twentieth-century (ERA-20C) centennial reanalysis is assessed by means of a comparison with the GPCC in situ product Full Data Monthly Version 7 (FDM-V7). For the spatial and temporal validation of ERA-20C, global temporal scores were calculated on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. These include contingency table scores, correlations, and differences in the trend, along with time series analyses. Not surprisingly, the regions with the strongest deviations correspond to regions with data scarcity, such as mountainous regions with their upwind and downwind effects, and monsoon regions. They all show a strong systematic bias (ERA-20C minus FDM-V7) and significant breaks in the time series. The mean annual global bias is about 37 mm, and the median is about 8 mm yr(-1). Among the largest mean annual biases are, for example, 3361 mm in the southern Andes, 2603 mm in the Western Ghats, and 2682 mm in Papua New Guinea. However, if there is high station density, the precipitation distribution is correctly reproduced, even in orographically demanding regions such as the Alps.