Effect of partial immunity on transmission dynamics of dengue disease with optimal control

摘要

Dengue fever is one of the most dangerous vector-borne diseases in the world in terms of death and economic cost. Hence, the modeling of dengue fever is of great significance to understand the dynamics of dengue. In this paper, we extend dengue disease transmission models by including transmit vaccinated class, in which a portion of recovered individual loses immunity and moves to the susceptibles with limited immunity and hence a less transmission probability. We obtain the threshold dynamics governed by the basic reproduction number R-0; it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R-0 <= 1, and the system is uniformly persistence if R-0 > 1. We do sensitivity analysis in order to identify the key factors that greatly affect the dengue infection, and the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) values for R-0 shows that the bitting rate is the most effective in lowering dengue new infections, and moreover, control of mosquito size plays an essential role in reducing equilibrium level of dengue infection. Hence, the public are highly suggested to control population size of mosquitoes and to use mosquito nets. By formulating the control objective, associated with the low infection and costs, we propose an optimal control question. By the application of optimal control theory, we analyze the existence of optimal control and obtain necessary conditions for optimal controls. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the effectiveness of control strategies; these simulations recommended that control measures such as protection from mosquito bites and mosquito eradication strategies effectively control and eradicate the dengue infections during the whole epidemic.