EIA Outlook Notes Short Term Boost in Oil Prices; Natural Gas Prices Will Languish While Inventories Rise at Record Pace

摘要

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA’s) Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) reports that North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $64/barrel (b) in May, a $5/b increase from April and the highest monthly average of 2015. Despite estimated global inventories increasing by more than 2 million b/d for the third consecutive month, the price seems to have been driven by (1) continued signals of higher global oil demand growth, (2) expectations for declining U.S. tight oil production in the coming months, and (3) the growing risk of unplanned supply outages in the Middle East and North Africa. Despite the large decline in prices since June 2014, this May’s estimated oil output in the U.S. is the highest for any month since 1972, "but production still is expected to decline in the second half of this year.”