Oil palm survival under climate change in Kalimantan and alternative SE Asian palm oil countries with future basal stem rot assessments

摘要

Oil palm (OP) is affected by climate change and the cultivation of the crop also contributes to climate alteration. Simulation modelling and large data sets indicated the effects of climate change on OP will be to (a) reduce growth and yields and (b) cause death of some OP. Furthermore, basal stem rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninense, a serious disease of OP, has increased over the past two or three decades because of the disease spreading from infection foci at a greater rate in repeated crops of OP planted on infested sites. The disease may increase further by natural selection of more virulent strains of the fungus. In this paper, increased mortality of OP is predicted based on climate change scenarios for Kalimantan and other South-East Asian countries with palm oil industries. Climate suitability scenarios for growing OP are also used to assess how BSR will change in the specified region and countries. The data suggest that Kalimantan and the Philippines may be more suitable for growing OP than Thailand and Myanmar, with Papua New Guinea being intermediate. Development of methods for mitigating the effects of climate change on OP is urgently required.