Is there an El Nino forecast forthcoming?

摘要

There are signs that El Nino could develop during the next few months, although most forecast models suggest that it would be weak, should it actually get underway.The Bureau of Meteorology currently has an El Nino Alert in place. This means there is a 70 pe cent chance of an El Nino event occurring during the coming months.This Alert is in place because the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been sitting near EI Nino thresholds for the last several weeks. However, ocean temperatures are only half the story. The atmosphere above the Pacific Oceanneeds to respond to, or become coupled with, the warming ocean for an El Nino event to be declared by the Bureau. Put simply, the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the Pacific Ocean, soEl Nino is not technically underway. The atmospheric component of El Nino is the part that affects weather here in Australia. During an El Nino, trade winds over the Pacific Ocean are disrupted, which limits the amount of moisture being carried towards our continent. This typically results in below-average rainfall in eastern Australia during winter and spring.