Russian food embargo and the lost trade

摘要

We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a triple-difference estimation strategy. We quantify the embargo-induced loss in EU28 exports at Euro125 million per month. Only 45 per cent of the drop in EU exports of banned products to Russia was due to the ban. EU member states were unevenly affected by the ban. The estimated losses of welfare in Russia range from 0.2 to 0.6 per cent (In absolute terms, this represents Euro18 to Euro58 of the 2013 revenue of the average Russian consumer.).