A one-year risk score to predict all-cause mortality in hypertensive inpatients

摘要

The aim of this study was to construct and internally validate a scoring system to estimate the probability of death in hypertensive inpatients. Existing predictive models do not meet all the indications for clinical application because they were constructed in patients enrolled in clinical trials and did not use the recommended statistical methodology. This cohort study comprised 302 hypertensive patients hospitalized between 2015 and 2017 in Spain. The main variable was time-to-death (all-cause mortality). Secondary variables (potential predictors of the model) were: age, gender, smoking, blood pressure, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), physical activity, diet and quality of life. A Cox model was constructed and adapted to a points system to predict mortality one year from admission. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping, assessing both discrimination and calibration. The system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. During the study, 63 patients died (20.9%). The points system prognostic variables were: gender, CCI, personal care and daily activities. Internal validation showed good discrimination (mean C statistic of 0.76) and calibration (observed probabilities adjusted to predicted probabilities). In conclusion, a points system was developed to determine the one-year mortality risk for hypertensive inpatients. This system is very simple to use and has been internally validated. Clinically, we could monitor more closely those patients with a higher risk of mortality to improve their prognosis and quality of life. However, the system must be externally validated to be applied in other geographic areas.