Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review

摘要

The greatest impacts of climate change on ecosystems, wildlife and humans often arise from extreme events rather than changes in climatic means. Northern high latitudes, including the Arctic, experience a variety of climate-related extreme events, yet there has been little attempt to synthesize information on extreme events in this region. This review surveys work on various types of extreme events in northern high latitudes, addressing (1) the evidence for variations and changes based on analyses of recent historical data and (2) projected changes based primarily on studies utilizing global climate models. The survey of extreme weather and climate events includes temperature, precipitation, snow, freezing rain, atmospheric blocking, cyclones, and wind. The survey also includes cryospheric and biophysical impacts: sea ice rapid loss events, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, floods, drought, wildfire, coastal erosion, terrestrial ecosystems, and marine ecosystems. Temperature and sea ice rank at the high end of the spectra of evidence for change and confidence in future change, while drought, flooding and cyclones rank at the lower end. Research priorities identified on the basis of this review include greater use of high-resolution models and observing system enhancements that target extreme events. There is also a need for further work on attribution, impacts on ecosystems and humans, and thresholds or tipping points that may be triggered by extreme events in high latitudes.