GIS-based spatial prediction of tropical forest fire danger using a new hybrid machine learning method

摘要

Forest fire danger map at regional scale is considered of utmost importance for local authority to efficiently allocate its resources to fire prevention measures and establish appropriate land use plans. This study aims at introduce a new machine learning method, named as DFP-MnBpAnn, based on Artificial Neural Network (Ann) with a novel hybrid training algorithm of Differential Flower Pollination (DFP) and mini-match backpropagation (MnBp) for spatial modeling of forest fire danger. Tropical forest of the Lam Dong province (Vietnam) was used as case study. To achieve this task, a Geographical Information System (GIS) database of the forest fire for the study area was established. Accordingly, DFP, as a metaheuristic method, is used to optimize the weights and structure of Ann to fit the GIS database at hand. Whereas, MnBp is employed periodically during the DFP-based optimization process, in which MnBp acts as a local search aiming to accelerate both the quality of the found solutions and the convergence rate. Experimental outcomes demonstrate that the proposed DFP-MnBpAnn model is superior to other benchmark methods with satisfactory prediction accuracy (Classification Accuracy Rate = 88.43%). This fact confirms that DFP-MnBpAnn is a promising alternative for the problem of large-scale forest fire danger mapping.