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MACRO --A Welcome but Temporary Reprieve

机译:宏观 - 欢迎,但临时缓解

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摘要

Optimism has surged with the suspension of tariff increases in the US-China trade war, but this temporary relief isovershadowed by the prospect of difficult trade negotiations and a slowing Chinese economy. The outlook remainspositive, however: a sharp downturn has been averted, and even the potential of stable or lifted tariffs is likely to seemetals demand rise once again.Chinese markets have strengthened since the suspension and fears of a crash—driven by tariff-wary purchasers lookingto pull back before the increases hit—have been assuaged. Strong imports from China to the US may continue into theMarch Quarter of 2019 as US purchasers take advantage of this hold, uncertain of whether tariffs will rise again. In June,the US placed a 25% tariff on US$50bn of imports from China. It followed this with a further 10% tariff against anadditional US$200bn of imports, and until the 90-day suspension on tariff hikes, the US was planning to raise this to 25%on January 1st, 2019.
机译:奥联贸易战暂停关税增加的乐观飙升,但这种临时救济因艰难贸易谈判的前景和中国经济放缓而异。 然而,展望仍然是:剧烈的衰退已经避免了,甚至稳定或提升关税的潜力也可能再次上涨。由于暂停和担心由关税警察购买者暂停和担心碰撞驱动的抵押贷款 寻找在突破的增加之前拉回来。 随着美国的购买者利用这一持有者,中国的强劲进口可能持续到2019年的主题季度,不确定关税是否会升起。 6月,美国占中国进口50亿美元的税率为25%的关税。 它随之而来这一目标与ANADDitional US $ 200亿美元的进口额外10%的关税,直到90天暂停关税徒步旅行,美国计划于2019年1月1日将这笔增长至25%。

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