A Dynamic Model for Winning Probability Estimation in a Long-Lasting Campaign

摘要

Warfare is still unavoidable in the contemporary era, and it is essential for a country to estimate its winning probability when making decisions. While most previous studies are concerned with the result of a single battle, this paper focuses on a long-lasting campaign that may consist of many battles. First, this paper considers two parties and a single type of armed force. Moreover, a dynamic approach is proposed to describe the evolution of the campaign. In particular, each party has a certain number of armed forces in the beginning, and the campaign ends if all the armed forces for any party are extinguished. The probability for each party to win and the probability of a draw are analyzed. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications.