Pre Harvest Maize Crop Yield Forecast at Different Growth Stage Using Different Model Under Semi Arid Region of India

摘要

Timely and accurate forecast provide proper planning in agriculture. Due to increase in input cost of agricultural operation, agriculture produces become cosdy. Therefore, forecasting in the agriculture become essential. The main factors affecting crop yield are weather, soil and genetic coefficient of the crop. Weather variability causes the losses in the yield. Therefore model based on weather parameters can provide reliable forecast in advance for crop yield. Experiments were conducted at researchfarm of IARI, New Delhi for pre harvest crop yield forecast of maize. Two varieties of maize were sown at two different dates during kharif 2016 seasons. Crop yield forecast were estimated by weather based and crop simulation model. Percentage deviationof estimated yield by actual yield done at flowering stage and at grain filling stage was 10.3 and 7.1 by weather based model, 6.7 and 3.7 by Infocrop model, 15.8 and 12.7 by DSSAT model respectively. Among the three models opted for estimating the yield at flowering and at grain filling stage, Infocrop model gave better results followed by weather based model and DSSAT model.