Analysis and forecast of the Tianjin industrial carbon dioxide emissions resulted from energy consumption

摘要

This paper analyses the carbon dioxide emissions caused by industrial energy consumption of Tianjin from 2005 to 2012. The carbon emissions decomposition illustrated that the scale of production factor played a major role in the growth of Tianjin industrial carbon emissions and the average contribution of carbon emissions is up to 220.8975% in the statistical period; the intensity of energy factor played an important role in slowing down the growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The average contribution of carbon emissions was ?136.1994% in the statistical period. The prediction model based on carbon emissions data from industrial energy consumption from 2003 to 2012 reached a high accuracy, with an average error of 1.78% for stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, 2.41% for the Logistic regression model and an average error of 1.54% for the grey model. This research can contribute to predict the carbon emission and through it some suggestions can be made.