FORECASTING OF RICE YIELD BASED ON WEATHER PARAMETERS IN KHEDA DISTRICT OF GUJARAT, INDIA

摘要

The present study was undertaken to investigate the feasibility of estimating the yield of rice based on combined effects of weather parameters and technological advancement, using past weather records for Kheda district of middle Gujarat state. To this end, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables (ARIMAX) time-series model along with its estimation procedure is studied. In the present investigation, two models at tillering stage of rice growth are developed by including themost important weather variables. As an illustration, ARIMAX models are employed for forecasting of rice yield in kheda district of Gujarat. Comparative study of the fitted models is carried out from the viewpoint of Relative mean absolute prediction error (RMAPE) Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean square error (RMSE) values.