Impact of the air temperature and atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation in Poland

摘要

There are two aims of this paper: First, the relationship between daily and hourly precipitation extremes and air temperature is investigated for the validity of Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling; second, the impact of the atmospheric circulation and transport of humidity on the extreme precipitation events occurrence in Poland is analysed based on data obtained from 26 stations across Poland in the period 1951-2015. It was shown that daily-scale extreme rainfall is less sensitive to changes in local atmospheric temperature but the hourly intensities reveal a similar behaviour at all stations showing a robust signal over the entire country. Regarding the impact of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, three types were distinguished in cool part of the year: one connected with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), second with a low-pressure zone in the north and high-pressure in the south of Europe and the northern Atlantic and third with a low over central Europe. Each time high precipitation in Poland was connected with the advection of humid air from the western sectors (SW, W or NW). In the warm part of the year three types were distinguished too, Poland was always in the scope of low-pressure systems with the advection of warm air from the southern sectors or when the warm air from the south meets the colder air from the north. Similar localizations of low centres have been found in the case of local-scale atmospheric circulation types during events with extreme precipitation. Both in cool and warm part of the year such events are connected with the increase of water vapour in the air. In cool season the wet and warm air masses inflow to Poland the most often from Atlantic, in the warm seasonfrom Mediterranean and/or Black Seas.