Observed variability and trends in the microclimate of the midlands of KwaZulu‐Natal and its influence on fire danger

Strydom Sheldon; Savage Michael J.

摘要

ABSTRACT > Current changes in global climate are likely to be evident at both the regional and the local scale. This study presents an investigation in climatic trends in the KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN) midlands, South Africa and seeks to assess the level of change in the microclimate and more specifically, the influence of a changing climate on fire danger. To this end, long‐term (1953–2015), historical daily meteorological data from the KZN midlands were analysed, using multitemporal regression analysis as well as time‐series analysis. Analysis indicated significant trends, to varying rates of change, across all sites. Over the last two decades, annual average air temperature was found to be increasing at a rate of between 1 and 3 °C century ?1 . Atmospheric water vapour pressure across the three sites also experienced significant levels of change. Decreases in total rainfall over the last two decades are of concern. Fire danger, calculated using the Lowveld fire danger index (LFDI), displayed significant rates of change. At two sites, annual average fire danger, over the last two decades, was found to be decreasing at a rate between roughly 5 and 10 FDI units century ?1 . The onset and length of the KZN midlands fire season has also undergone significant changes, as a response to changes in the microclimate. Sites experienced an overall decreasing trend in the onset of the fire season – indicative of an earlier start to the fire season, as well as an increase in fire season length. Results indicate that while the microclimate of the KZN midlands is changing, the rate of change differs from that of global and continental estimates. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >全球气候的当前变化很可能是在区域和当地规模方面是明显的。本研究提出了夸祖鲁 - 纳塔尔（KZN）中部，南非的气候趋势调查，并寻求评估微气密的变化水平，更具体地，改变气候对火灾危险的影响。为此，长期（1953-2015），分析了来自KZN Midlands的历史日常气象数据，使用多发性回归分析以及时间序列分析。分析表明，在所有网站上发生了不同的变化率。在过去二十年中，发现年平均气温以1至3°C世纪的速度增加 1 </ sup>。三个地点的大气水蒸气压也经历了显着的变化。过去二十年的总降雨量下降令人担忧。使用低位火灾危险指数（LFDI）计算的火灾危险，显示了大量变化率。在两个站点，在过去的二十年中，每年平均火灾危险被发现，在大约5和10个直接投资单位世纪 1 </ sup>之间的速率下降。 KZN Midlands火季的发病和长度也经历了显着的变化，作为对微气密变化的反应。场地经历了火灾季节发作的总体下降趋势 - 指示火季的开始，以及火季长度的增加。结果表明，虽然KZN Midlands的微气门正在发生变化，但变化率与全球和大陆估算的变化率不同。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Strydom Sheldon&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Strydom Sheldon;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Savage Michael J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Savage Michael J.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Agrometeorology Discipline Soil‐Plant‐Atmosphere Continuum Research UnitSchool of Agricultural Earth and Environmental Sciences University of KwaZulu‐NatalPietermaritzburg South Africa;</p> <p>Agrometeorology Discipline Soil‐Plant‐Atmosphere Continuum Research UnitSchool of Agricultural Earth and Environmental Sciences University of KwaZulu‐NatalPietermaritzburg South Africa;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=KZN midlands&option=203" rel="nofollow">KZN midlands;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=fire danger&option=203" rel="nofollow">fire danger;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=fire season&option=203" rel="nofollow">fire season;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seasonal variation&option=203" rel="nofollow">seasonal variation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=wildfires&option=203" rel="nofollow">wildfires;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候变化;KZN Midlands;火灾;火季节;季节性变化;野火; 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