A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns

Richardson Douglas; Fowler Hayley J.; Kilsby Christopher G.; Neal Robert

摘要

ABSTRACT >Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather‐pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI‐based drought months. The new weather‐pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation‐based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra‐pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification‐based analyses in the UK. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >天气模式，或天气类型，分类是许多应用中的有价值的工具，因为它们在给定区域上的宽尺寸大气循环表征。本研究分析了区域英国降水和气象干旱气候的方面，了解一套新的客观定义的天气模式。 Met Office在由集合预测系统驱动的几个概率预测应用程序中使用这些新模式。天气模式定义和日常出现映射到羊羔天气类型（LWTS），并且绘制了两个分类之间的相似之处。每日降水分布与每个天气模式和LWT相关联。标准化降水指数（SPI）和干旱严重程度指数（DSI）系列用于一系列聚合期和季节。每月天气模式频率异常计算SPI潮湿和干燥时期，以及5％最激烈的DSI干旱月份。新的天气模式定义和日常出现在很大程度上同意其各自的LWTS，允许两个分类之间的比较。在天气模式和LWT频率变化之间也有广泛的一致性。新数据集显示在英国的基于降水分析的情况下是足够的，尽管较小的聚集天气模式不是。此外，与LWTS相比，新分类中的图案中的图案沉淀变异性较低，这在这种情况下是一个优势。六种新的天气模式与整个英国的干旱有关，其他几种模式与区域干旱有关。据证明，新数据集的天气模式为英国的分类分析提供了新的机会。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共19页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Richardson Douglas&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Richardson Douglas;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Fowler Hayley J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Fowler Hayley J.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kilsby Christopher G.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kilsby Christopher G.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Neal Robert&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Neal Robert;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>School of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesNewcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne UK;</p> <p>School of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesNewcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne UK;</p> <p>School of Civil Engineering and GeosciencesNewcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne UK;</p> <p>Department of Weather ScienceMet OfficeExeter UK;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=meteorological drought&option=203" rel="nofollow">meteorological drought;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=precipitation&option=203" rel="nofollow">precipitation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climatology&option=203" rel="nofollow">climatology;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=weather patterns&option=203" rel="nofollow">weather patterns;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lamb weather types&option=203" rel="nofollow">Lamb weather types;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=UK&option=203" rel="nofollow">UK;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=standardized precipitation index&option=203" rel="nofollow">standardized precipitation index;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=drought severity index&option=203" rel="nofollow">drought severity index;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气象干旱;降水;气候学;天气模式;羊羔天气类型;英国;标准化降水指数;干旱严重性指数; 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