Use of observed temperature statistics in ranking <fc xmlns='http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley'>CMIP5</fc>CMIP5 model performance over the Western Himalayan Region of India

Das Lalu; Dutta Monami; Mezghani Abdelkader; Benestad Rasmus E.

摘要

ABSTRACT > Assessing warming over the Western Himalayan Region ( <fc>WHR</fc> ) of India is challenging due to its limited station data availability and poor data quality. The missing values in the station data were replaced using the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation technique. Finally, 16 stations having continuous records during 1969–2009 were considered as the ‘reference stations’ for assessing the warming/cooling trends in addition to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison, phase 5 ( <fc>CMIP5</fc> ), Global Circulation Model ( <fc>GCM</fc> ). Station data indicates winter ( <fc>DJF</fc> ) warming is higher and rapid (1.41?°C) than the other seasons and less warming was observed in the post‐monsoon (0.31?°C) season. Overall mean annual warming over <fc>WHR</fc> is ～0.84?°C during 1969–2009. The performance of 34 <fc>CMIP5</fc> models was evaluated based on three different criteria namely (1) mean seasonal cycle, (2) temporal trends and (3) spatial correlation between simulated and observed signals for common available period of 1969–2003 over the study area. Models are provided a final rank on the basis of the cumulative rank obtained in each of three approaches. <fc>CMCC‐CM</fc> , <fc>GISS‐E2‐H</fc> and <fc>MIROC 5</fc> are three top‐ranked models while <fc>MIROC‐ESM</fc> , <fc>MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM</fc> and bcc‐csm1‐1 are three bottom‐ranked models over the <fc>WHR</fc> . The study also extended to judge whether the selected top‐ranked models perform well through two alternative data sources namely European Reanalysis (ERA)‐interim and Climate Research Unit ( <fc>CRU</fc> ), which have not </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >评估Himalayan地区的热身（<由于基站数据可用性和数据质量不佳，印度的FC> WHR </ FC>）是挑战。使用多个归纳链式方程技术更换了站数据中缺失的值。最后，在1969 - 2009年期间，具有连续记录的16个站被认为是用于评估加热/冷却趋势的“参考站”，除了评估偶联的型号，相5（<FC> CMIP5 </ FC>），全局循环模型（<FC> GCM </ FC>）。站数据表示冬季（<FC> DJF </ FC>）变暖较高，快速（1.41Ω°C）比其他季节，在后季后翁（0.31Ω·°C）季节中观察到更少的变暖。整体平均值在1969-2009期间〜0.84°C为〜0.84°C。基于三种不同的标准评估了34 <FC> CMIP5 </ FC>模型的性能即（1）均值季节周期，（2）模拟和观察信号之间的常见信号与1969年常见期间之间的空间相关性-2003在研究区。基于三种方法中的每种方法中获得的累积等级，提供了最终等级。 <FC> CMCC-CM </ FC>，<FC> GISS-E2-H </ FC>和<FC> MIROC 5 </ FC>是三个顶级型号，而<FC> Miroc-ESM </ FC> ，<FC> Miroc-ESM-CHEM-CHEM </ FC>和BCC-CSM1-1是<FC> WHR </ FC>上的三个底部型号。该研究还扩展了判断所选的排名模型是否通过两个替代数据来源表现良好，即欧洲重新分析（ERA） - interim和气候研究单位（<FC> CRU </ FC>），其没有 </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共17页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Das Lalu&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Das Lalu;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dutta Monami&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dutta Monami;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mezghani Abdelkader&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mezghani Abdelkader;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Benestad Rasmus E.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Benestad Rasmus E.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Agricultural Meteorology and PhysicsBidhan Chandra Krishi ViswavidyalayaNadia India;</p> <p>Department of Agricultural Meteorology and PhysicsBidhan Chandra Krishi ViswavidyalayaNadia India;</p> <p>Division for Model and Climate Analysis The Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOslo Norway;</p> <p>Division for Model and Climate Analysis The Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOslo Norway;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=MICE&option=203" rel="nofollow">MICE;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=GCMs&option=203" rel="nofollow">GCMs;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ERA ‐interim&option=203" rel="nofollow">ERA ‐interim;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seasonal cycle&option=203" rel="nofollow">seasonal cycle;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=spatial correlation&option=203" rel="nofollow">spatial correlation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=trends&option=203" rel="nofollow">trends;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：小鼠;CMIP5;GCMS;ERA -Interim;季节性周期;空间相关;趋势; 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Use of observed temperature statistics in ranking CMIP5CMIP5 model performance over the Western Himalayan Region of India

摘要