EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971–2000): model performance and implications for decision‐making in topographically complex regions

机译：苏格兰群岛欧洲驯岛地区气候模型模拟（1971-2000）：在地形复杂地区决策的模型性能和影响

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ABSTRACT >Due to their scale and complex topography, islands such as the Hebrides and Shetland Islands are not completely resolved by global climate models, which may impact the quality of data that can be provided about future climate in such locations. In principle, dynamical downscaling may provide helpful additional detail about future local climate. However, there is also the potential for error and uncertainty to cascade through to the regional simulation. Here, we evaluate the simulative skill of the EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model ensemble on regional and local scales in the Hebrides and Shetland Islands, and consider the potential for such models to aid decision‐making in island settings, and other locations characterized by complex topography. Several precipitation indices (accumulated precipitation amount, mean daily precipitation amount, max 1‐day and 5‐day precipitation amounts, simple daily intensity, number of heavy and very heavy precipitation days) are used to assess model performance and identify bias relative to observations. Models are compared regionally, and at specific locations, namely Stornoway in the Hebrides and Lerwick in Shetland, for the period 1971–2000. Regional evaluation utilizes the UKCP09 gridded observational data set and local evaluation at Stornoway Airport and Lerwick utilizes observed mean precipitation and extreme indices from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project. While no models perform skilfully across all the metrics studied, some models capture aspects of the precipitation climate at each location particularly well. Differences in model performance between the two case study sites highlight the value of evaluating models on multiple spatial scales. The implications of model uncertainty for decision‐making are also discussed. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”> abstract </ title> >由于其规模和复杂的地形，岛屿如赫布里德和驻地群岛并没有通过全球气候模型完全解决，这可能会影响这些地区在未来气候的数据质量。原则上，动态缩小可以为未来当地气候提供有用的额外细节。然而，还有误差和不确定性来级联到区域模拟。在这里，我们评估了欧洲驯岛地区气候模型的模拟技能在赫布里德和德兰德群岛的区域和地方秤上，并考虑这些模型在岛屿环境中援助决策的潜力，以及特征在于复杂的其他地点地形。几种降水指数（累积降水量，平均每日降水量，最大1天和5天降水量，简单的日常强度，重和非常重的降水天数）用于评估模型性能并相对于观察识别偏差。在地区比较模型，在1971 - 2000年期间，在特定地点，即斯德罗德的特定地点，即斯特兰德和Lerwick。区域评估利用UKCP09网格化的观察数据集，Stornoway机场和Lerwick的当地评估利用来自欧洲气候评估和欧洲气候评估的平均降水和极端索引;数据集项目。虽然在研究所有指标上没有模型熟练地进行熟练地进行，但一些型号占据每个位置的降水量的各个方面。两种案例研究网站之间模型性能的差异突出了在多个空间尺度上评估模型的值。还讨论了模型不确定性对决策的影响。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Foley Aideen&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Foley Aideen;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kelman Ilan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kelman Ilan;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of GeographyUniversity of London BirkbeckLondon UK;</p> <p>UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster ReductionUniversity College LondonLondon UK;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=regional climate models&option=203" rel="nofollow">regional climate models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=model evaluation&option=203" rel="nofollow">model evaluation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainty&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainty;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：区域气候模型;模型评估;气候变化;不确定性; 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