Future changes due to model biases in probabilities of extreme temperatures over East Asia using CMIP5 data

Seo Ye‐Won; Yun Kyung‐Sook; Lee June‐Yi; Lee Yang‐Won; Ha Kyung‐Ja; Jhun Jong‐Ghap

摘要

ABSTRACT > This study examines the performances of 31 global climate models in the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) in terms of probability density functions (PDFs) for maximum ( <fi>T</fi> max) and minimum ( <fi>T</fi> min) air temperatures over East Asia in the present and CMIP5‐model projected future changes. In general, most of models well reproduce warm‐season peak for both <fi>T</fi> max and <fi>T</fi> min but exhibit large inter‐model spread for simulating cold‐season peak, especially for <fi>T</fi> min. Minimum values of <fi>T</fi> min and <fi>T</fi> max are more strongly dependent upon model selection than maximum values of them. For the last 25?years of the 21st century, under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario, models project shifts toward warmer values in the PDFs of <fi>T</fi> max and <fi>T</fi> min and broadening in the shape of PDFs. Models with warm biases in PDFs tend to show larger shifts in temperature changes, but seasonal mean temperature biases do not affect to future changes. It is notable that the broadening of PDFs in the future influences temperature extreme events. Using the changes in probabilities of heat waves as one of extreme temperature events by comparing multi‐model ensemble (MME) and models with good performance of PDFs, this study shows that MME tends to overestimate its duration. Our findings suggest that future changes in temperature extremes projected by models are strongly come from the biases detected in those models when simulating present extreme temperature PDFs. Therefore, correcting the intrinsic biases of models rather than seasonal mean correction is necessary to reduce the uncertainties in predicti </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究审查了31个全球气候的表演耦合模型中的模型在比较项目5（CMIP5）的概率密度函数（PDF）最大值（<Fi> T </ Fi Max）和最小（<Fi> T </ Fi> Min）空气温度在目前的东亚和CMIP5模型预计未来的变化。通常，大多数模型均匀再现暖季峰值<fi> t </ fi> min，但展示了模拟寒季峰的大型模型传播，尤其是< fi> t </ fi> min。 <fi> t </ fi> min和<fi> t </ fi> max的最小值更强烈地取决于模型选择而不是它们的最大值。在21世纪的最后25岁以下，在代表性浓度途径4.5场景下，模型项目在<fi> t </ fi> max和</ fi> min的PDF中转向较高的温暖值</ fi> min并扩大以pdfs的形状。 PDF中具有温暖偏见的模型倾向于在温度变化中显示出更大的变化，但季节性平均温度偏差不会影响未来的变化。值得注意的是，在未来的PDF中扩大影响温度极端事件。通过比较多模型集合（MME）和PDF性能良好性能的多模型集合（MME）和模型，利用热波概率的变化作为极端温度事件之一，本研究表明MME倾向于高估其持续时间。我们的研究结果表明，在模拟当前极端温度PDFS时，模型投射的最新温度的变化强烈来自这些模型中检测到的偏差。因此，需要校正模型的内在偏差而不是季节性均值校正，以减少预测中的不确定性 </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共12页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Seo Ye‐Won&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Seo Ye‐Won;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yun Kyung‐Sook&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Yun Kyung‐Sook;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lee June‐Yi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lee June‐Yi;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lee Yang‐Won&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lee Yang‐Won;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ha Kyung‐Ja&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ha Kyung‐Ja;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Jhun Jong‐Ghap&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Jhun Jong‐Ghap;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Division of Earth Environmental System College of Natural SciencePusan National UniversityBusan South Korea;</p> <p>Research Center for Climate SciencesPusan National UniversityBusan South Korea;</p> <p>Research Center for Climate SciencesPusan National UniversityBusan South Korea;</p> <p>Department of Spatial Information EngineeringPukyong National UniversityBusan South Korea;</p> <p>Division of Earth Environmental System College of Natural SciencePusan National UniversityBusan South Korea;</p> <p>School of Earth and Environmental SciencesSeoul National UniversitySeoul South Korea;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme climate&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme climate;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=future change&option=203" rel="nofollow">future change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=East Asia&option=203" rel="nofollow">East Asia;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=probability density function&option=203" rel="nofollow">probability density function;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=heat wave&option=203" rel="nofollow">heat wave;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：极端气候;未来的变化;东亚;概率密度函数;CMIP5;热波; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 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