Predictability of late‐season tropical cyclone accumulated kinetic energy around Taiwan 2 months ahead

Lu Mong‐Ming; Lee Ching‐Teng; Wang Bin

摘要

ABSTRACT >Long‐lead seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is strongly demanded, albeit challenging, for hazard prevention and preparedness in the area prone to TCs. This article attempts to present a late‐season (September–November, SON) empirical prediction model to predict the accumulative cyclone kinetic energy (ACE) around Taiwan. The predictors are the sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐level pressure (SLP) anomaly during the preceding spring and summer seasons over tropical Southeast Asia, subtropical western and central North Pacific, and subtropical North Atlantic. Three prediction models are established with the lead times of 0, 1, and 2 months. Different types of large‐scale influence on the TC activity are found for the above and below‐normal‐ACE years, respectively. For the above‐normal‐ACE years, the favourable large‐scale condition is warm SSTs over the west Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), and eastern Indian Ocean, and the associated anomalous cyclonic winds and low SLP over the west Pacific marginal seas. The robust precursors are the warm SSTs over mid‐latitude west North Pacific and North Atlantic, and the low SLP over Atlantic during the preceding spring season. For the below‐normal‐ACE years, the favourable large‐scale condition is cold SSTs over Indonesian seas and equatorial west Pacific, warm SST and low SLP over equatorial east Pacific, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the SCS and the Philippine Sea. The robust precursors are the anomalous SST and SLP during the preceding spring season, with the opposite signs to the above‐normal‐ACE years. The presented models built on the precursor signals are proved able to generate skilful forecast 2 months ahead. The product ACE‐SON can be used for seasonal TC activity outlook in a larger area including the coastal region of south </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：lang =“en”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> > long-热带气旋（TC）活性的主要季节性预测强烈要求，虽然有挑战性，但危害危害于TCS的地区的危害预防和准备。本文试图展示季节（9月至11月，儿子）经验预测模型，以预测台湾周围的累积旋风动力学（ACE）。预测变量是海面温度（SSTS）和海平面压力（SLP）在热带东南亚，亚热带西部和中部北太平洋，亚热带北大西洋中的夏季季节。建立了三种预测模型，其交货时间为0,1,2个月。对上述和低于正常的岁月来说，发现不同类型的TC活性的大规模影响。对于上述正常阶段，有利的大规模条件是西太平洋，南海（SCS）和东部印度洋的温暖SSTS，以及西太平洋边缘海域的相关异常循环风和低SLP 。强大的前体是中纬度西北太平洋和北大西洋的温暖SST，以及在前春季的大西洋的低SLP。对于低于正常的岁月，良好的大规模条件是印度尼西亚海洋和赤道西太平洋，温暖的SST和低SLP的冷SST，以及赤道东太平洋，以及SCS和菲律宾海洋的异常反转循环。鲁棒的前体是前春季的异常SST和SLP，具有与上述正常情况的迹象。已经证明，在前体信号上建立的模型能够在前方2个月产生熟练的预测。产品ACE-SOO可以用于季节性TC活动前景，包括南部沿海地区 </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共15页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lu Mong‐Ming&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lu Mong‐Ming;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lee Ching‐Teng&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lee Ching‐Teng;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang Bin&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wang Bin;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Central Weather BureauTaipei Taiwan;</p> <p>Central Weather BureauTaipei Taiwan;</p> <p>Department of Atmospheric Sciences Atmosphere‐Ocean Research CenterUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu HI USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tropical cyclone predictability&option=203" rel="nofollow">tropical cyclone predictability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=western North Pacific typhoons&option=203" rel="nofollow">western North Pacific typhoons;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seasonal forecast&option=203" rel="nofollow">seasonal forecast;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=empirical prediction model&option=203" rel="nofollow">empirical prediction model;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Southeast Asia climate&option=203" rel="nofollow">Southeast Asia climate;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Taiwan climate&option=203" rel="nofollow">Taiwan climate;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：热带气旋可预测性;西北太平洋台风;季节性预测;经验预测模型;东南亚气候;台湾气候; 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