Potential contribution of winter dominant atmospheric mode over the mid‐latitude Eurasia to the prediction of subsequent spring Arctic Oscillation

Han Shuangze; Sun Jianqi

摘要

Abstract >Spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been revealed to exert a great impact on the Northern Hemispheric climate; however, its seasonal prediction skill has been limited so far. In this paper, we find that the dominant mode of the winter 500‐hPa geopotential height anomalies over the mid‐latitude Eurasia has a close connection with the succeeding spring AO. The analysis on the physical processes indicates that the troposphere–stratosphere interaction plays an important role in the connection between the two. This predominant atmospheric mode in the mid‐latitude Eurasia during winter can change the vertical wave activity and lead to an anomalous stratospheric polar vortex. Thereafter, the signal of the anomalous stratospheric polar vortex propagates downward to troposphere in the subsequent spring, consequently inducing the anomalous AO pattern in the troposphere. The results in this study imply that this previous winter leading atmospheric mode over the mid‐latitude Eurasia may supply a potential source for a spring AO's prediction. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> 春天北极振荡（AO）已经揭示对北半球气候产生重大影响;然而，到目前为止，其季节性预测技能有限。在本文中，我们发现冬季500-HPA地理位置高度异常在中纬度欧亚亚洲的主导模式与后续春季AO密切相关。对物理过程的分析表明，对流层 - 平流层互动在两者之间的连接中起着重要作用。在冬季纬度欧亚亚洲中纬度欧洲亚洲的主要大气模式可以改变垂直波浪活性并导致异常的平坦散源涡流。此后，异常平流层极性涡流的信号向下传播到随后的弹簧中的对流层，因此诱导对流层中的异常AO模式。这项研究的结果意味着前面的冬季欧洲亚洲中纬度的大气模式可能提供弹簧AO预测的潜在来源。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2020年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Han Shuangze&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Han Shuangze;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sun Jianqi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sun Jianqi;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Nansen‐Zhu International Research CenterInstitute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> <p>Nansen‐Zhu International Research CenterInstitute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=dominant atmospheric mode&option=203" rel="nofollow">dominant atmospheric mode;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=mid‐latitude Eurasia&option=203" rel="nofollow">mid‐latitude Eurasia;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=spring Arctic Oscillation&option=203" rel="nofollow">spring Arctic Oscillation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=troposphere–stratosphere interaction&option=203" rel="nofollow">troposphere–stratosphere interaction;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：主导大气模式;中纬度欧亚亚洲;春天北极振荡;对流层 - 平流层相互作用; 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