Evaluating the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia: Creating a reduced ensemble for rainfall and temperature in Northwest Ethiopia and the Awash basin

Dyer Ellen; Washington Richard; Teferi Taye Meron

摘要

Abstract >The purpose of this study was to evaluate the historical skill of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in two regions of Ethiopia: northwestern Ethiopia and the Awash, one of the main Ethiopian river basins. An ensemble of CMIP5 models was first selected so that atmosphere‐only (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, AMIP) and fully coupled simulations could be directly compared, assessing the effects of coupled model sea surface temperature (SST) biases. The annual cycle, seasonal biases, trends, and variability were used as metrics of model skill. In the Awash basin, both coupled and AMIP simulations had late Belg or March‐May (MAM) rainy seasons. In connection to this, most models also missed the June rainfall minimum entirely. Northwest Ethiopia, which has a unimodal rainfall cycle in observations, is shown to have bimodal seasonality in models, even in the AMIP simulations. Significant AMIP biases in these regions show that model biases are not related to SST biases alone. Similarly, a clear connection between model resolution and skill was not found. Models simulated temperature with more skill than rainfall, but trends showed an underestimation in Belg (MAM/April‐May (AM)) trends, and an overestimation in Kiremt or July‐September (JAS/June‐September (JJAS)) trends. The models which were shown to have the most skill in a range of categories were HadGEM2‐AO, GFDL‐CM3, and MPI‐ESM‐MR. The biases and discrepancies in model skill for different metrics of rainfall and temperature found in this study provide a useful basis for a process‐based analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble in Ethiopia. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究的目的是评估埃塞俄比亚两世地区耦合模型互相熟项项目阶段5（CMIP5）中模型的历史技能：埃塞俄比亚西北部和避难所，是主要的埃塞俄比亚河流域。首先选择CMIP5型号的集合，以便可以直接比较大气 - 仅限大气（大气模型离法项目，AMIP）和完全耦合模拟，评估耦合模型海面温度（SST）偏差的影响。年周期，季节性偏见，趋势和变异用作模型技能的指标。在AWASH盆地中，耦合和AMIP模拟都有晚些时候或3月 - 5月（MAM）雨季。在此目的，大多数模型也完全错过了6月降雨。在观测中具有单峰循环的西北埃塞俄比亚，即使在alip模拟中也显示出模型中的双峰季节性。这些区域中的显着amp偏差显示，模型偏差与单独的SST偏差无关。同样，找不到模型分辨率和技能之间的明确连接。模拟模拟温度与降雨量更多的技能，但趋势在Belg（MAM / April-May（AM））趋势，呈低估，以及Kiremt或7月至9月（Jas / 6月至9月（JJAS））趋势的趋势。显示在一系列类别中具有最多技能的模型是Hadgem2-AO，GFDL-CM3和MPI-ESM-MR。本研究中发现的降雨和温度不同度量模型技巧的偏差和差异为CMIP5集成的基于过程的基于过程的分析提供了有用的基础。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2020年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共22页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dyer Ellen&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dyer Ellen;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Washington Richard&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Washington Richard;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Teferi Taye Meron&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Teferi Taye Meron;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordOxford UK;</p> <p>School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of OxfordOxford UK;</p> <p>International Water Management InstituteAddis Ababa Ethiopia;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ensembles&option=203" rel="nofollow">ensembles;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=general circulation models&option=203" rel="nofollow">general circulation models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=policy&option=203" rel="nofollow">policy;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=rainfall&option=203" rel="nofollow">rainfall;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seasonal&option=203" rel="nofollow">seasonal;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tropics&option=203" rel="nofollow">tropics;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候;融合;一般循环模式;政策;降雨;季节性;热带; 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