Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach

Basher Abul; Islam A. K. M. Saiful; Stiller‐Reeve Mathew A.; Chu Pao‐Shin

摘要

Abstract >In this paper, we used a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to analyse the changes in rainfall extremes in the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099 over northeast Bangladesh as a consequence of climate change. Climate change over this region could potentially impact agricultural production, water resources management, and the overall economy of the country. We used six regional climate models (RCMs) over the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment South Asia domain. We used one medium stabilization scenario (RCP4.5) and one high‐emission scenario (RCP8.5) for projecting the extreme rainfall indices. A multi‐model ensemble mean was generated using the BMA approach. The BMA mean is a weighted average related to each RCM's predictive skill during the training period. Most of the rainfall extremes are expected to increase in both pre‐monsoon (March–May) and monsoon (June–September) seasons in the future compared with baseline (1976–2005). The average pre‐monsoon rainfall of the study area is projected to increase by 12.93 and 18.42% under RCP4.5 and 18.18 and 23.85% under RCP8.5 for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, respectively. The average monsoon rainfall of the study area is projected to increase by 4.96 and 2.27% under RCP4.5 and 6.56 and 6.40% under RCP8.5 for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, respectively. All the extreme indices except consecutive wet day are expected to change significantly at the 95% confidence level during the pre‐monsoon season. The study area will potentially be subjected to more frequent floods in the future both in pre‐monsoon and monsoon seasons as a consequence of climate change. Notably, the intensity and the magnitude of flash flooding in the pre‐monsoon season are expected to increase more in the future because the increase in extreme indices is more significant during that season. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> 在本文中，我们使用了贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法，以分析了2041 - 2017年期间的降雨变化，以至于气候变化的结果。该地区的气候变化可能会影响农业生产，水资源管理和国家的整体经济。我们在协调区域淡化实验南亚领域使用了六种区域气候模型（RCMS）。我们使用了一个中型稳定场景（RCP4.5）和一个高音场景（RCP8.5）来投影极端降雨指数。使用BMA方法生成多模型集合均值。 BMA平均值是与训练期间每个RCM预测技能相关的加权平均值。与基线（1976-2005）相比，大多数降雨极值预计将在未来季风（3月至5月）和季风（6月至9月）季节增加。在RCP4.5和18.18和18.18和23.85％下，分别在2041-2070和2071-2099的RCP8.5下，研究区的平均季隆诺预降降降雨量增加12.93％和18.42％。在RCP4.5和6.56和6.56和6.56和6.4.56和6.40％下，分别在2041-2070和2071-2099的RCP8.5下，研究区的平均季风降雨量预计将增加4.96％和2.27％。除连续潮湿的日子之外的所有极端指数都预计将在季风季节前95％的置信水平上显着变化。由于气候变化，研究领域将未来可能会在季风和季风季节中更频繁地洪水。值得注意的是，预计季风季节中的闪蒸洪水的强度和幅度将来会增加，因为在该季节的极端指数的增加更为显着。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2020年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共18页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Basher Abul&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Basher Abul;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Islam A. K. M. Saiful&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Islam A. K. M. Saiful;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Stiller‐Reeve Mathew A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Stiller‐Reeve Mathew A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chu Pao‐Shin&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chu Pao‐Shin;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)Dhaka Bangladesh;</p> <p>Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)Dhaka Bangladesh;</p> <p>NORCE Norwegian Research Centre ASBergen Norway;</p> <p>Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii‐ManoaHonolulu Hawaii;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bayesian model averaging&option=203" rel="nofollow">Bayesian model averaging;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=multi‐model ensemble mean&option=203" rel="nofollow">multi‐model ensemble mean;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=rainfall extremes&option=203" rel="nofollow">rainfall extremes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=regional climate models&option=203" rel="nofollow">regional climate models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=representative concentration pathways&option=203" rel="nofollow">representative concentration pathways;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：贝叶斯型号平均;气候变化;多模型合奏意味着;降雨极端;区域气候模型;代表浓度途径; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023002644.html">Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Basher Abul&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Basher Abul,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Islam A. 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