Climate trends in the East Antilles Islands

摘要

This paper analyzes climate trends in satellite-blended model reanalyses for the east Antilles islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique (14-17 degrees N, 62.5-60.5 degrees W). Trends are studied for the dry winter (JFM) and wet summer (JAS) seasons, for parameters including: aerosol profile, tropospheric NO2 concentration, rainfall and hydrology, outgoing longwave radiation, potential evaporation, sea level, air and sea temperature and salinity in the upper ocean. Climate change emerges in the form of 2-4 and 6-8-year surges in near-surface temperature and mid-tropospheric subsidence. While near-surface specific humidity exhibits a rising trend especially in summer, the mid-troposphere is drying. Coastal zones show little trend in rainfall, but cloud forests on the volcanic slopes are getting wetter. Faster rising trends are noted for sea surface height, and for sea temperatures in low salinity zones that affect tropical cyclone intensification. This work quantifies the spatial and temporal nature of climate variability in the east Antilles islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique and advocates for increasing integration of mesoscale analysis into studies on local socio-economic vulnerability.