The Evolution Response of Ecosystem Cultural Services under Different Scenarios Based on System Dynamics

摘要

Cultural ecosystem services (CES) are a significant part of the ecosystem and are considered to be a core component of human welfare and ecosystem protection. CES have been historically difficult to quantitatively evaluate because of their subjectivity and intangibility. Additionally, their evolution over time has rarely been explored. Here, we quantitatively evaluated various CES and generated corresponding value index (VI) maps. We then further explored the evolution of CES characteristics over space and time. We selected Xi'an as the study area and applied the Social Values of Ecosystem Services (SolVES) model to evaluate CES and generate three specific VI maps. A system dynamics model based on socioeconomic and survey data of CES for each administrative division was established. Finally, we simulated four developmental scenarios in order to predict potential developmental changes of CES in 2030 under these different scenarios. This study provides a method for evaluating CES and explores the application of system dynamics to different fields. Additionally, our findings may provide guidance for the formulation of regional policies and support missions to improve civilizations within ecological systems, coordinate future economic growth with ecosystem services, and achieve sustainable development.