Floodwater Utilization Based on Reservoir Pre-Release Strategy Considering the Worst-Case Scenario

摘要

Utilizing floodwater resources is important in relieving water shortages, and dynamic control of the flood limited water level (FLWL) for reservoir operation in a flood season is an effective method to achieve this objective. Based on the capacity-constrained pre-release method, this study proposed an improved dynamic control method that considered the duration of dry periods and the lead time of flood forecasts. The pre-release process was divided into two periods: water use and flood control. Taking Xianghongdian Reservoir in the Huai River Basin of China as an example, this study analyzed the statistical laws of continuous dry periods and effective flood forecast lead times and compared the effects of the negative exponential and asymptotic regression models in fitting the dry period distribution. We also calculated the floodwater volume over the FLWL in different situations and evaluated the flood control risks in a worst-case scenario. Statistical law of the dry period duration showed obvious negative index distribution characteristics; the relationship between increased water storage, dry period, and lead time can provide support for the operation decisions of the reservoir. The method did not increase the flood control risk under worst-case scenarios, and it can be used to effectively utilize reservoir floodwater resources.