Comparison of Hydrology Component Spatial Correlation Model (Continuous Model) and Markov Chain (Case Study of Cikapundung Watershed, Saguling Reservoir and Cipanunjang Reservoir)

摘要

Water allocation in the watershed is a concern in developing countries where there are limited water resources and greater demands with more parties. Past data on water flow amount is the only information available to estimate future water delivery. One of the strategies used is to determine the exact number of water discharge based on past recorded data. Future prediction data is essential for sustainable management of water resources. The objective of this research is to construct a hydrological model to estimate or anticipate future water discharge using the Discrete Chain Markov model where the results are then compared with continuous discharge rain model by implementing multiple linear regression method. Both components (rain and discharge) are then modified into several alternatives in 3 different research sites to analyze and compare the combination of the results with the highest correlation value. The inflow discharge data in Cipanunjang used in this study is the data retrieved from 2000-2013; data of Cikapunung Watershed are retrieved from 2003-2012. Meanwhile, data of Saguling are extracted from 1986-2013. In spatial correlation method, QQQQ combination was acquired in Cipanunjang, while the best combination that can be acquired in Cikapundung and Saguling watersheds is QQ_(t-1)PP. The correlation values based on the spatial correlation method in Cipanunjang, Cikapundung watershed, and Saguling were 0.882, 0.871 and 0.857, respectively. Meanwhile, the correlation values of Discrete Markov method in the same places were 0.899, 0.718 and 0.782, respectively. These results suggest that this continuous method can be used to predict the amount of water discharge in the future well enough and is effectively used in Indonesia territories.