Applying Grey Systems and Shannon Entropy to Social Impact Assessment and Environmental Conflict Analysis

摘要

Social impact assessment (SIA) is an important factor to prevent environmental conflicts, in this way, it is very necessary to integrate SIA and environmental conflict analysis (ECA). In this work, we propose to integrate SIA and ECA by means of an integrated method based on grey systems and Shannon entropy. A case study was conducted on a hydrocarbon exploration project located in the Gulf of Valencia, Spain. Three stakeholder groups and four evaluation criteria were established. The results revealed that for group of affected directly population (G1), the project would have very negative social impact; for group of academic population (G2), the project would have negative social impact; and contrary perception was found in the group of retirees (G3), who opined the project would have positive social impact. In addition, it was also noted that the criteria most likely to generate environmental conflict were the percentage of unemployment (C4) and the GDP per capita (C3). The results obtained in this study could help to central and local authorities to make the best decision on the project. The integrated method showed interesting results and could be applied to assess social impacts and to analyse environmental conflicts from other type of projects.