Forecasting impact of climate change on potato productivity in West Bengal and adaptation strategies

摘要

The WOFOST crop growth simulation model was used to study the impact of climate change on potential potato productivity in West Bengal and also to devise management strategy to minimize the impact of climate change through selection of suitable variety and shifting the date of planting. The study was carried out at 13 locations in West Bengal. The simulation was done for baseline scenario and future climate scenario of 2020 and 2055 for three potato cultivars, viz., Kufri Badshah (long duration), Kufri Jyoti (medium duration) and Kufri Pukhraj (short duration), for A1FI high emission scenario of temperature and CO2. Simulation revealed that although the increase in temperature is likely to reduce the yield by 8.8 to 10.1% in 2020 and 23.7 to 28.8% in 2055, a corresponding increase in CO2 may increase the yields by 4.5 to 4.7% in 2020 and 19.2 to 20.5% in 2055. However, under the combined effect of CO2 and temperature, the highest decline of 6.1% in productivity of Kufri Pukhraj is expected followed by 5.9% in Kufri Jyoti and 5.1% Kufri Badshah in 2020, with corresponding figures of 12.0, 10.5 and 8.8% in 2055. Results further revealed that the negative effect of climate change on potato productivity can be counter-balanced to some extent through change in date of planting and/or selection of suitable varieties, as it may bring down the reduction in yield from 5.7 to 1.5% in 2020 and 9.7 to 7.1% in 2055.