Verification of global radiation fluxes forecasted by numerical weather prediction model AROME for Hungary

摘要

Global radiation output fluxes predicted by numerical weather forecast model AROME were verified by using measured high accuracy global radiation data from the 19 most reliable network stations of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Three suitably-selected months (April, June, August) from 2013 were used for the study. Differences between observed and forecasted values were analyzed separately for all cases, overcast cases, and cloudless (clear-sky) cases. It was found that AROME performs well for clear cases, and its goodness decreases as cloudiness increases. For cloudless cases, using aerosol optical depth, graybody optical depth, and relative global radiation to represent radiative transmission condition of the atmosphere, it was found that AROME overestimates atmospheric radiation transmission for cases of high turbidity and underestimates it for very clear conditions. It means that radiation transmission scale of the atmosphere produced by the model is more narrow than that of true atmosphere.