Brent: Struggling To Break Higher In Face Of Heightened Uncertainty

摘要

We hold to our current forecast for Brent this month, at an annual average of USD44.0/bbl in 2020, rising to a USD51.0/bbl average in 2021, refecting a continued rebalancing of the physical crude market and a drawdown of global inventories. However, sentiment towards oil remains weak and with the term structure in contango and fnancial markets looking toppy the risks of a near-term relapse in the price are elevated. Supply is rising in the near term, as OPEC+ starts to unwind its cut and wells that were throttled or temporarily shut-in over Q2 are brought back online.