Snowmelt runoff assessment and prediction under variable climate and glacier cover scenarios in Astore River Basin, Western Himalayas

摘要

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the Himalayan region, which may ultimately affect the water security and agriculture productivity in the region. Investigations of hydrologic regimes and their linkage to climatic trends are therefore gaining importance to reduce vulnerability of growing implications in the region. In the present study, the eWater source software implementation of GR4JSG snow melt model was used for snow melt runoff modeling of the Astore river basin, western Himalayas. The model calibration and validation indicated a close agreement between the simulated and observed discharge data. The scenario of 0.9 degrees C increase in temperature indicated 33% rise in the river discharge, while an increase of 10% in precipitation may exaggerate the river flows by 15%. The scenario of 100% increase in glaciated area showed 41% increase in the Astore river discharge. On the other hand, reduction of 50% glacier cover may result in 34% decline in the river discharge, while 0% glacier coverage may reduce the river discharges by 49% from that of the base year 2014. It is essential to develop a long-term water resource monitoring process and adapt water management systems taking into account the socio-economic and ecological complexities of the region.